Lindy effect.
- Watch old movies, drink old wine, read old books and keep old friends.
- Things that survive for a long time do so for a reason, whether or not that reason is visible to human beings.
- Not everything that happens, happens for a reason, but everything that survives, survives for a reason.
Sequence matters and the presence of ruin disqualifies cost-benefit analyses
Risk and ruin are different, volatile things are not necessarily risky. Take a lot of risks that don’t have tail risks but offer tail profits.
All risks are not equal, never compare a systemic and fat tailed risk(Ebola) to a idiosyncratic, and thin-tailed one (car accident)
Beware of the person who gives advice, telling you that a certain action on your part is “good for you” while it is also good for him, while the harm to you doesn’t directly affect him.
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